ABC Impacts

Aviation and the Belgian Climate Policy :
Integration Options and Impacts

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Presentation of the research project

The ABC impacts project is financed by the Belgian Science Policy, research programme "Science for a sustainable development" (SSD), first call.

The project has begun on January 2006 and will take place until December 2007. A second phase is expected during the years 2008 and 2009.

The consortium of research centres that will carry on the work is made of CEESE-ULB (coordination and policy aspects), ETEC-VUB (emissions and technical aspects), MOSI-VUB (market aspects and multicriteria analysis) and ASTR-UCL (climate modelling aspects). A brief description of each research centre is to find on the page About us in the Open section.

The website of the project contains this Home page including a summary of the project and a tasks scheme, an Open section with different pieces of information available for anybody and a Secured section used as intranet for the researchers.

News on the website

• 12/05/2009 : Minutes and related presentations of the ABC workshop on aviation scenarios and climate impacts (26 March 2010) are available on the page Project publications
  
  
• 22/09/2009 : The "Joint industry paper on international aviation and climate change" is available on the page References
  
  
• 17/09/2009 : Note on how to take into account the aircraft induced cloudiness in the EU-ETS (May 2009)
  
  
• 16/03/2009 : Poster for the UNFCCC Climate Conference (International Alliance of Research Universities, Copenhague, 10/03-12/03/2009)
  
  
• 11/03/2009 : Minutes of the ABC workshop on non-CO₂ aviation climate impacts (2 February 2009) are available on the page Project publications
  
  
• 05/02/2009 : The agenda and the presentations of the ABC workshop on non-CO₂ aviation climate impacts (2 February 2009) are available on the page Project publications
  
  
• 01/12/2008 : The new European Directive on aviation and the EU-ETS is available on the page References
  
  
• 28/08/2008 : Note on the inclusion of non-CO₂ effects of aviation in the ETS
  
  
• 11/06/2008 : Minutes of the ABC Impacts workshop on "Aviation and offset programmes" (6 May 2008) are available on the page References
  
  
• 28/05/2008 : The agenda and the presentations of the ABC Impacts workshop on "Aviation and offset programmes" (6 May 2008) are available on the page Project publications
  
  
• 26/05/2008 : ABC Impacts Final report phase I and related Glossary are available on the page References
  Remark: all the words appearing in blue in the report and the glossary are explained in the glossary
  
  
• 20/02/2008 : The National Climate Commission report on "GHG emissions in Belgium : trends, forecasts and progress compared to the Kyoto target" (2007) is available on the page References
  
  
• 29/01/2008 : European Parliament vote and Environment Council conclusions on the proposal to include aviation in the EU-ETS are available on the page References
  
  
• 28/01/2008 : Presentations of the different stakeholders dialogues (CCIM|CCPIE - Vlaamse klimaatconferentie) on the inclusion of aviation in the EU-ETS are available on the page References
  
  
• 01/10/2007 : The JCM5 model (climate modelling) with its new module on aviation is available on the page Calculate your own impacts. This module gives an overview of the influence of the aviation sector on climate according to several parameters (you may change these parameters and see the modifications that changes have generated). Its is the first step towards the development of an interactive tool to assess impacts of specific flights.
  
  
• 14/08/2007 : The page In Brief in the 0pen Section has been completed with a glossary of the main specific terms used in the context of the ABC Impacts project, and different synthesis documents on "Climate stake and climate policy : mitigation and adaptation", "Belgian institutions related to climate policy", "Aircraft emissions" and "Climate impacts from the aviation".

Summary of the research project

The ABC impacts project aims at providing Belgian stakeholders with a detailed and integrated analysis of issues related to the inclusion of international air and maritime transport into European and/or international climate policy.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change special report on aviation (1999) has revealed the importance of the impacts on global warming of emissions from the aviation sector. Such report indeed shows that, in addition to CO₂, condensation trails, NO_x emissions and cirrus cloud formation have a significant impact on climate change. Yet, emissions from international air and maritime transport are not targeted by the Kyoto Protocol commitments, and are not integrated in any international climate policy, despite considerable growth in these sectors in the past several years.

Nevertheless, the possibility of integrating these sectors is more and more considered both at the European level and in the context of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The European Union is planning on including aviation in its emission trading system starting in 2013, and it is very likely that part of the post-Kyoto international negotiations be dedicated to accounting for emissions from international transport. Different options may thus be considered for the inclusion of international air and maritime transport into climate policy, and the analysis of such options is of particular interest for Belgium, given the importance of these sectors in its economy.

In this context, the ABC policy project will provide in two successive phases a new, in-depth analysis of the aviation sector and climate policy options from a technical, environmental and an economic viewpoint, compared to other international transport modes.

More specifically, the project's first phase will include the following work packages:

• A state-of-the-art that will summarise available data and knowledge concerning maritime (a.o. ECOSONOS and MOPSEA projects) and other transport mode sectors, climate policies and emission inventory methodologies (WP1);
  
  
• The design of scenarios describing the probable evolution of the aviation sector by means of a market analysis and traffic projections (WP2);
  
  
• The identification and assessment of available technologies (current and future) for aircraft propulsion as well as different air routes and possible flight options (WP3);
  
  
• An evaluation of the emissions from international air transport transiting through Belgium (and the European Union) as well as a comparison with the emissions from other modes of transportation (WP4);
  
  
• A comparison of the climate-related impacts of emissions from the aviation sector and the impacts of the greenhouse gases concerned by the Kyoto Protocol as well as an assessment of various methods for the spatial and temporal aggregation of climate-related impacts using existing climate models (WP5);
  
  
• An identification and assessment of the options for integrating the aviation and maritime sectors into international climate policy, including environmental and efficiency aspects, the additional charge for Belgium and the effort required from the aviation and maritime sectors as compared to other sectors (WP6);
  
  
• A multi-criteria analysis aimed at comparing various political options with respect to the priorities of civil society (WP7).
  

In the second phase of the project, the process will be reiterated on the basis of new scenarios that will integrate :

• A model of regional climate impacts, in the aim of analysing the effects of cirrus cloud formation over Belgian territory (WP8);
  
  
• The analysis of other potential political measures aimed at reducing environmental damage (including non-climate related ones) of air and maritime transport (WP9);
  
  
• The updating of major parameters (for instance: fuel prices and the demand for international transport), the development of potential evolution scenarios for aviation and maritime transport (WP10) and an assessment of major implications for Belgium, the aviation and maritime transport sectors based on the policy options and scenario chosen (WP11).
  

The project will deliver, towards the end of its second phase, a synthesis report that will compare, from a political, technical, socio-economic and environmental viewpoint, the options for integrating air and maritime transport into climate policy. Finally, it will provide a series of recommendations for Belgian decision-makers, based on the multi-criteria analysis (WP12).

Tasks scheme of the project

Research project financed by the Belgian Science Policy in the programme "Science for a sustainable development" (SSD), first call

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